Las Vegas had its best year ever in 2023 following a full recovery from covid-19 numbers, but now The Strip had a fourth consecutive month of year-on-year declines in revenue. This seems very dramatic and it made all the news, so it’s important to analyze the numbers to see if Las Vegas Strip casinos are really going bust.
Slot machines revenue was up 5.5%, which is always a good sign as slots are the bread and butter of The Strip and the largest single gambling vertical, but table games have shown a minus 14.5% decline. Baccarat, a known boom-or-bust game for the operators, saw a huge decline of 23.4%. However, it is crucial to put these numbers in the perspective of Las Vegas seeing record-breaking numbers a year ago, making it difficult for 2024 numbers to keep up with the trend.
The 440 licensed casinos in the state reported a win of $1.28 billion, which is down 2.2% from a year ago. However, the analysts are optimistic about the numbers as the slot machine revenue of $932.3m is actually the highest-ever, breaking the previous record from June 2024. So it was the other games, most notably table games, that have been a let down.
Downtown Las Vegas had its best month in history in October 2023 so now, a year on, it is showing an 11% decline. Las Vegas Strip casinos are showing a 3.1% year-on-year decline to $692.1m.
The drop in revenue coincides with a rise in revenue of online casinos across the country, perhaps indicative of a trend where locals gamble at their online and land-based casino options, without the need to go to Las Vegas to gamble anymore. It could be a true statement that there is no real need to go to Vegas to gamble for residents of most US states now that the market is regulated in a lot of them.
There have been a lot of new land-based casinos opening recently across the country, and there have also been new online casinos launched as regulation changes to allow for them to see the light of day.
Earlier this week, Caesars launched its online brand Horseshoe Casino in New Jersey, which is the fifth North American jurisdiction where this casino has begun operation, and the fourth USA jurisdiction, the others being Ontario, Michigan, West Virginia and Pennsylvania.
There are currently 29 legal New Jersey casinos that all compete for the slice of the same pie, including top performers such as DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Fanatics. Horseshoe Casino lets players play slot machines, video poker, virtual table games and live dealer games.
For the first time ever, revenue for online casinos in New Jersey in October surpassed Atlantic City casinos’ revenue. The margin is slim but the trend has most certainly flipped, as online gambling sites raked in $213,6m, which is $4.9m more than retail casinos.
However, while it may seem that online play is taking revenue away from retail casinos, a more careful study of results shows that retail casinos have not had a significant decline, but are instead still working towards recovering from covid-19 decline.
October 2024 is the worst month for Atlantic City casinos since 2020, but the win total of $208.7m is still better than the numbers for October 2019. Also, the nine retail casinos in Atlantic City are seeing different numbers to one another, indicating that it’s difficult for the retail market to successfully attract players, but that this probably isn’t directly caused by online play becoming more popular than ever.
Moreover, in New Jersey, all licensed online casinos operate in partnerships with the Atlantic City retail casinos. So, the retail casinos get a cut of the win that the online casinos bring in. The details of the financial arrangement are not public, so we can’t know how much does each licensee pay to its respective land-based partner. But it’s the land-based casinos that definitely hold a lot of negotiating leverage here as the online casinos must have a land-based partner.
New Jersey is one of three largest markets for regulated online casinos, and the longest-running one of the three.
Statistics can reveal a few things about the US gambling scene, but also hide many important facts, so it’s always important to read between the lines. For example, the October 2023 results could have been overstating the slot revenue as Saturday, 30 September happened to be included in the results, whereas October 2024 wasn’t as lucky to include an additional weekend day. This created a favorable position for October 2023 compared to October 2024, and could be the main reason behind the somewhat apparent 2024 year-on-year decline.
It is also vital to study statistics as a whole, to see the big picture and to see how the trends intertwine. There is no doubt that the gambling numbers in USA are booming, and it’s just a matter of who gets a smaller or a larger slice of the pie.
Also, percentages often tell a skewed story regarding who actually is the top earner. While a large percentage reduction in baccarat may seem significant, it contributes little to the bottom line compared to slots. The 5.5% increase in slots revenue far outweighs the 23.4% decline in baccarat revenue.
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Dave Schwab 
December 11, 2024 
